The full story
The only nationally representative survey is the Pacific Attitudes Survey of 1,319 voting-age Samoans, taken in December 2020 and January 2021 before FAST took office: 37.3% named an economic issue and 37.2% a health issue as the first problem for government, 53.3% were satisfied with how democracy worked, and only 22.9% said leaders did what voters wanted. 5 Since then there has been no published representative poll of government approval or of FAST against HRPP. 56 A self-selected online youth survey across four countries, reported on 31 May to 2 June 2026, found 45% of Samoan respondents rated their leader bad or very bad and 55% felt leaders looked after themselves or the rich; no Samoa sample size was given, so it cannot stand for the whole population. 67
Elections are the firmest signal. In April 2021 the initial result was FAST 25, HRPP 25 and one independent; compiled candidate votes gave FAST 36.57% and HRPP 55.38%, with HRPP fielding more candidates. 89 On 29 August 2025, after Fiamē's government lost its budget vote and she left to form the Samoa Uniting Party, FAST under Laʻauli won 30 seats, HRPP 14, SUP 3 and independents 4; the compiled tally gave FAST 40.86%, HRPP 36.78%, SUP 8.62% and independents 12.50%, with 88.65% turnout. 1012 By 12 October 2026, after petitions, defections and by-elections, PINA counted 34 FAST, 13 HRPP and five independents in a 52-seat Assembly with six women. 11
Four by-elections since September 2025 all went to FAST. In Safata I on 27 February 2026, four FAST candidates took 86% of 1,856 valid votes between them and the winner beat a fellow FAST candidate by two votes; HRPP took 14.33%. 1213 In Vaimauga III on 1 May 2026 an independent won with 46.87% against FAST's 25.90% and HRPP's 14.90%, a result later voided by the court. 1415 Safata II on 10 July 2026 returned its incumbent, who had switched from HRPP to FAST, with 56.86%; no HRPP candidate stood. 1617 On 18 September 2026 FAST won the Vaimauga III rerun with 32.18% to HRPP's 28.48%, and Falealili I with 28.54% in a seven-candidate field. 33738 FAST's share in Vaimauga III was 56.31% in the February 2023 by-election. 18
Protest and petition activity has been small and on both sides. In 2021 FAST supporters marched for the judiciary (more than 500 on Upolu) and HRPP held convoys and marches of an estimated 1,000-plus; the Council of Churches sought a resolution and the Catholic archbishop performed an ifoga. 19202122 A ceasefire march and petition of more than 1,000 signatures in December 2023 was followed by a pro-Israel march in January 2024. 2324 In January 2026 the prime minister's proposal to consider restricting non-Christian religions drew mixed reactions from church ministers and the public. 2526 In February 2026 chiefs of Faʻasaleleaga II challenged the government's choice of district-development chair for lack of district consent. 27
Media freedom has measurably worsened. Reporters Without Borders ranked Samoa 44th of 180 in 2025 (score 69.28) and 59th in 2026 (64.53), citing restricted access under successive governments since 2021. 4 In November 2025 Laʻauli excluded the Samoa Observer from his press conferences for what he called inaccurate and unethical reporting; the journalists' federation called it a ban, and the government confirmed on 2 October 2026 that it still applied. 282930 Editorials and columns argue both ways: the Observer on 7 June 2025 urged voters to hold politicians to past promises, Talamua on 27 August 2026 defended district projects, and Newsline on 13 March 2026 carried Tuilaepa's criticism of the district funds law. 313233
What families say matters comes from reporting, not a ranked survey: food prices, infant formula and blackouts before the 2025 election; water, roads and street lighting in Vaimauga III; jobs, healthcare and education among youth respondents; medicine shortages pushing people to private pharmacies in July 2026; and methamphetamine, which election reporting said manifestos largely ignored. 103473536