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Growth. The economy shrank 10.07% in 202020. It then grew 4.4% in 2021, 5.7% in 2022 and 11.9% in 2023 as tourism reopened8, and 4.8% in FY2023/24 and 4.2% in FY2024/2513. On 1 October 2026 the Samoa Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.6% contraction in FY2025/26, with commerce the largest negative contributor; fishing fell 15.3% and construction 8.7% year on year in the June 2026 quarter1. The IMF (0.4%), ADB (0.4%), World Bank (0.2%) and Central Bank (−0.7%) had all estimated FY2025/26 before that release, so their figures differ from the SBS result54910. ADB attributes the slowdown to delays in government spending after the 2025 snap election and the late budget, weaker commerce, below-average rainfall for agriculture and fewer longline vessels fishing4. An SBS expenditure-based report suggesting an 8.1% decline was withdrawn for review and is not an official estimate11.
Prices and fuel. Average inflation was 10.9% in 2022 and 7.9% in 2023, then 2.2% in 2024 and 2.2% in 202512. The IMF and ADB put the FY2025/26 average at 1.4%, but prices were 5.8% higher in June 2026 than a year earlier as fuel costs rose54. SBS tables show prices 3.4% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, with the average annual rate at 1.2%12. For FY2026/27 the IMF forecasts 4.5%, ADB 5.0% and the Central Bank 3.8% by June 20275418; ADB expects fuel and transport costs, including the 30% taxi and bus fare rise of July 2026, to squeeze purchasing power4.
Budget, deficit and debt. SBS records government surpluses (net lending) of SAT$301.0m in FY2023/24, SAT$169.4m in FY2024/25 and SAT$149.6m in FY2025/26, with revenue falling to SAT$1,056.4m in FY2025/263. ADB says the FY2025 surplus of 4.7% of GDP, against a targeted 2.1% deficit, reflected stronger tax collection and poor execution of approved spending7. Government debt fell from SAT$815.5m at end FY2023/24 to SAT$690.8m, 19.4% of GDP, at end FY2025/26; the IMF rates Samoa at moderate risk of debt distress35. The FY2026/27 budget, presented on 26 May 2026 and passed by Parliament by 26 June, plans SAT$1,500.6m of spending against SAT$1,284.7m of receipts, a cash deficit of SAT$215.9m which the government calls 3.1% of GDP; the IMF projects an overall deficit of 1.1% of GDP on its own measure, and the two figures are not the same thing6142113. The budget includes SAT$100m for a fuel-supply response for the Electric Power Corporation, SAT$102m for district development, a senior citizens benefit raised from SAT$300 to SAT$500 a month and SAT$20m for a child benefit6.
Remittances and tourism. The Central Bank records remittances of SAT$902.8m in FY2024/25 and SAT$952.8m in FY2025/26, up 5.5%; visitor arrivals rose from 180,654 to 190,844 and visitor earnings from SAT$651.96m to SAT$701.5m, up 7.6%2. ADB says the rise in remittances supported household spending4. The World Bank expects arrivals to moderate because of higher fuel and airfare costs, and tourism operators told a July 2026 consultation that limited air connectivity restricts arrivals and investment915.
Sectors. Agriculture was the principal industry for 30.0% of employed people in the 2022 labour force survey, while the primary sector made up 8.0% of nominal GDP in the June 2026 quarter161. Taro exports fell from SAT$7.200m in 2021 to SAT$1.769m in 2025, coconut oil from SAT$11.337m to SAT$5.228m, and fish from SAT$12.527m to SAT$0.236m8. Fishing output has fallen for seven consecutive quarters; ADB cites fewer large longliners operating because market prices were low relative to operating costs14. Construction grew 11.2% year on year in the June 2025 quarter and fell 8.7% in the June 2026 quarter as major civil engineering projects finished171. Commercial bank credit growth slowed to 2.5% a year at end April 2026 and the Central Bank left its policy stance unchanged on 29 June 20261018.
What independent bodies say. The IMF (29 July 2026) found persistent under-execution of capital spending, notably under the District Development Program, and said further expansion should depend on demonstrable improvements in execution, transparency and accountability5. It advised targeted assistance rather than broad price controls or subsidies, a high degree of fuel-price pass-through and a gradual return of electricity tariffs to cost recovery, and said generalised fuel subsidies should be avoided except as a last resort5. The World Bank's May 2026 Pacific Economic Update likewise favoured tightly targeted, time-bound support over broad measures19. Not yet known: a measured effect of the new benefits on poverty or jobs, and how much of the SAT$100m fuel response has actually been spent65.